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Mid-year updates and forecasts for the apartment and CRE markets uniformly note the improved economic conditions compared to the start of the year, but forecasts for rent growth and capital markets are diverging. Under one scenario, a recession in late 2023/early 2024 will prompt an interest rate reduction that could stimulate CRE capital markets, but…

Rent growth trends continue to moderate from last year’s historic peak, and many of the top markets of last year have seen much lower rent growth due to the influx of apartments. Strong GDP numbers and a healthy job market, however, support continued housing demand and economic stability despite the elevated interest rate environment.

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25%, and while Federal Reserve staff “are no longer forecasting a recession,” others are more confident in a recession as the inevitable product of this lengthy period of elevated interest rates. Amidst this continuing economic uncertainty, the multifamily market has shown solid demand. That being said,…

The multifamily market continues to steadily improve, with solid underlying fundamentals but softer demand in areas that have seen a major influx of supply, a situation that lines up with the mixture of positive and negative indicators for the broader housing market and for the economy as a whole. Both home prices and rents have…

The drumbeat of coverage on commercial real estate loan trouble continues this week as strong jobs numbers fuel more uncertainty about inflation and economic strength, and while the multifamily market has shown stable rent growth, there is a high amount of regional variability. With the exception of Texas markets and the indefatigable growth of Miami,…

While there has been more optimism about the economy generally, apartment rent growth continues its moderation on a national level, with some notable regional variation. Unlike more costly markets in the West and South, recent apartment rent growth reporting highlights the consistent growth of more affordable multifamily markets in the Midwest, a trend that also…

The CPI recorded another substantial drop in inflation, which should ease some financial burdens for renters and could act as a signal to the Federal Reserve Bank that interest rates need not increase any further. The resumption of student loan repayments this August could have a more direct impact on apartment demand, and three separate…

New guidance from the Federal Reserve indicates increased attention to the issue of property distress in the commercial real estate market, even as the larger economy shows more positive signs and decreasing inflation. While the office sector is a prominent focus for potential distress, the Fed includes multifamily properties and other CRE property types in…

With the Consumer Price Index showing declining annual inflation, (from 4.9% in April to 4% in May) and low, 0.1% month-over-month inflation, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates level is understandable, but Jerome Powell’s remarks did not indicate that rates will go down any time soon. Even as these paused interest rate increases…